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  • Daily Briefing | 2026-09-01: Oil prices climb above $90 again, the gap between growth and computing power widens.

    Daily Briefing | 2026-09-01: Oil prices climb above $90 again, the gap between growth and computing power widens.

    Today's main theme

    The most noteworthy event of the past 24 hours was not an isolated piece of news, but rather the fact that global markets are once again facing a situation where "supply shocks and growth divergence are emerging simultaneously". The resumption of military conflict between the United States and Iran has brought Brent crude oil back to around $90 a barrel, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations and the interest rate path of major economies. China's manufacturing sector improved in August compared to July, but overall it remained in contraction territory, and the service sector also showed no significant improvement, indicating that the recovery of domestic demand remains uneven. At the same time, Europe continues to use public investment to make up for the shortcomings in AI computing power, indicating that technology capital spending is still expanding. The war also began to change food transport routes more directly. The core issue the market needs to judge next is whether the price pressures brought about by energy and geopolitical risks will overwhelm the growth support released by manufacturing and AI investments.

      2026-09-01  
    Read moreDaily Briefing | 2026-09-01: Oil prices climb above $90 again, the gap between growth and computing power widens. 
  • Daily Briefing | August 31, 2026: Tensions Rise Again in Hormuz, Global Funds Reassess Risks

    Daily Briefing | August 31, 2026: Tensions Rise Again in Hormuz, Global Funds Reassess Risks

    Today's main theme

    Entering Monday's Asian trading session, global markets once again faced the same question: how high valuations risk assets can withstand when geopolitical conflicts, energy prices, and high interest rates coexist. Following the US strikes on Iranian Larak Island targets, the Strait of Hormuz once again became the market pricing center, with Brent crude oil briefly breaking through $90 in early Asian trading. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant is about to face multiple pressures at the G20: trade frictions, Iran sanctions, and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Another "valuation risk" has emerged in the AI field: large technology companies recognized huge book gains in the latest quarter due to their holdings of equity in other AI companies. In China, PetroChina's half-year profit was boosted by high oil prices, but refined oil sales weakened, reflecting uneven domestic demand. Overall, today is not driven by a single event, but by a round of risk reassessment driven by energy, financing costs, technology valuations, and Chinese demand.

      2026-08-31  
    Read moreDaily Briefing | August 31, 2026: Tensions Rise Again in Hormuz, Global Funds Reassess Risks 
  • Daily Briefing | 2026-08-30: Japanese Yen Approaches 160 Again, Technology and Energy Risks Heat Up

    Daily Briefing | 2026-08-30: Japanese Yen Approaches 160 Again, Technology and Energy Risks Heat Up

    Today's main theme

    In the past 24 hours, there has been no single "super event" in global markets, but several seemingly scattered news items are pointing in the same direction: policies, technology supply relationships, and geopolitical conflicts are all increasing the market's pricing of tail risks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's rare public emphasis that disorderly fluctuations in the yen could trigger forced liquidation and, in turn, raise U.S. financing costs indicates that the exchange rate issue has risen from a domestic issue in Japan to a global financial stability issue. In the field of AI, OpenAI's plan to stop providing models to Cursor, which was acquired by SpaceX, brings business competition, corporate governance, and the risks of dependence on basic models to the forefront. Meanwhile, Changxin Memory, a leading Chinese memory chip manufacturer, sued the U.S. Department of Defense, Russia extended its diesel export ban, and Iran experienced high inflation and a decline in trade under the pressure of sanctions and war, further demonstrating that technology, energy, and finance are being more deeply embedded in the logic of national security. What the market really needs to be wary of is not just fluctuations in the price of a particular asset, but the amplification of these risks against a backdrop of high valuations, high leverage, and tight supply chains.

      2026-08-30  
    Read moreDaily Briefing | 2026-08-30: Japanese Yen Approaches 160 Again, Technology and Energy Risks Heat Up 
  • Daily Briefing | August 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish Again, China's Real Estate Reshapes Pre-sale Rules

    Daily Briefing | August 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish Again, China's Real Estate Reshapes Pre-sale Rules

    Today's main theme

    Over the past 24 hours, the common theme in global markets has been "policy rules repricing". Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh put 3.7% PCE inflation back at the core of policy in Jackson Hole, prompting markets to raise interest rate hike bets, strengthen the dollar, and put pressure on gold and technology stocks. China continues to repair its real estate system, focusing on housing sales and development financing, in an attempt to break the risk chain of "pre-sale - high leverage - delayed delivery". Meanwhile, a U.S. court blocked the Pentagon from listing Anthropic as a supply chain risk, indicating that the conflict between AI companies and governments over national security, military borders, and procurement power is entering the judicial level. Coupled with Iranian sanctions and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, the core issue today is how policy can redefine the cost of capital, industry boundaries, and risk premium.

      2026-08-29  
    Read moreDaily Briefing | August 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish Again, China's Real Estate Reshapes Pre-sale Rules 
  • ECON3116 What We Learned from International Trade Theory and Policy: A Complete Review Note on From Comparative Advantage to Trade Policy

    ECON3116 What We Learned from International Trade Theory and Policy: A Complete Review Note on From Comparative Advantage to Trade Policy

    The English course name of ECON3116 is International Trade Theory and PolicyThat is, international trade theory and policy. This course doesn't just discuss "why countries exchange goods," but revolves around a complete economic theme: why different countries, industries, and companies form different trade patterns. How open trade can expand production and consumption possibilities; Why aren't trade gains automatically distributed equally domestically? And how prices, income distribution, and overall welfare change when governments use tariffs, quotas, subsidies, and trade agreements.

    After completely organizing the Lectures, tutorials, Quick quizzes, formula lists, and calculation problems, I understood the entire course as a four-layer interconnected framework: the first layer is...Source of tradeThis includes productivity differences, factor endowment differences, and economies of scale; The second layer isTrade resultsThis includes specialization, relative prices, income distribution, and welfare; The third layer isEnterprise and market structureExplain product differentiation, heterogeneous enterprises, exports, and FDI; The fourth layer isTrade Policy and SystemExplain protectionism, political incentives, the WTO, and preferential trade agreements.

      2026-08-28  
    Read moreECON3116 What We Learned from International Trade Theory and Policy: A Complete Review Note on From Comparative Advantage to Trade Policy 
  • ECON3124 What I Learned in Behavioral Economics: Complete Notes from Core Theories to Final Review

    ECON3124 What I Learned in Behavioral Economics: Complete Notes from Core Theories to Final Review

    ECON3124 is Behavioural Economics. Instead of taking "human irrationality" as a conclusion, it systematically asks three questions above the standard economic model: How exactly do human preferences deviate from the standard model? Why do people's beliefs go systematically wrong? When these people compete with each other, how will market outcomes and public policy change?

    In the process of completely reviewing this course, I gradually organized the content scattered in the handouts, tutorials, and mock exams into a set of interconnected frameworks, and deepened my understanding by using a cycle of concept recognition, formula modeling, independent exercises, error diagnosis, and targeted retesting. Below is both a course knowledge map and a summary of how to systematically review behavioral economics.

      2026-08-28  
    Read moreECON3124 What I Learned in Behavioral Economics: Complete Notes from Core Theories to Final Review 
  • Daily Briefing | 2026-08-28: Hawkish Trends Rise Again, Nvidia Supports AI Narrative

    Daily Briefing | 2026-08-28: Hawkish Trends Rise Again, Nvidia Supports AI Narrative

    Today's main theme

    Over the past 24 hours, global markets have returned to three main themes: "how long can high interest rates last, whether AI growth can offset macroeconomic pressures, and whether energy risks have truly eased." US PCE inflation remained significantly above the 2% target in July, and several Federal Reserve officials continued to send hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating that the market's previous expectations for rapid easing are still facing revision. Meanwhile, Nvidia's doubling of revenue and rapid growth in its data center business once again demonstrated that investment in AI infrastructure has not cooled down, providing support for technology stocks. In Asia, the Bank of Korea raised interest rates for the second consecutive time, indicating that some economies have once again prioritized inflation and financial stability over growth. China has launched a year-long special campaign on automotive quality, shifting the focus of competition from price to safety, reliability, and long-term quality. In the Middle East, Iran and Oman continue negotiations on shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, but navigation is far from returning to normal, and the energy risk premium has not truly disappeared.

      2026-08-28  
    Read moreDaily Briefing | 2026-08-28: Hawkish Trends Rise Again, Nvidia Supports AI Narrative 
  • Zhongyuan Festival: The 15th day of the seventh lunar month for Chinese people, from ancestor worship and Obon to Zhongyuan tradition.

    Zhongyuan Festival: The 15th day of the seventh lunar month for Chinese people, from ancestor worship and Obon to Zhongyuan tradition.

    The fifteenth day of the seventh lunar month is called "Zhongyuan Festival" or "July and a Half" in many parts of China. If we only understand it as the "Ghost Festival", we will actually miss a more important aspect of this festival: it is related to the ancient traditions of autumn sacrifice and ancestor worship, and has also absorbed the Taoist concept of "Zhongyuan" and the Buddhist tradition of Obon. Later, rich customs such as ancestor worship, popularization, releasing river lanterns, and inviting family members have developed in different regions. The reason it has truly lasted for over a thousand years is not due to mysterious legends, but to how Chinese people face death, remember loved ones, maintain family relationships, and how they integrate "remembering the past" into the order of life throughout the year.

      2026-08-27  
    Read moreZhongyuan Festival: The 15th day of the seventh lunar month for Chinese people, from ancestor worship and Obon to Zhongyuan tradition. 
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