Today's main theme
The most significant change in the past 24 hours has been the further shift in the global macroeconomic environment from "waiting for inflation to naturally decline" to proactively addressing sustained supply and price pressures. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16 and made it clear that most officials expect further tightening to be needed this year; Meanwhile, oil transportation in the Middle East remains exceptionally fragile. Although Saudi Arabia has increased transshipment through Oman, causing oil prices to fall from their highs, navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz is still far below normal levels. High energy costs and higher policy interest rates are combining to raise corporate financing, transportation, and production costs. On the other hand, AI risks have moved from internal corporate governance to the political agendas of the United Nations and the United States, while the official opening of the Pinglu Canal in China reflects the long-term policy direction of reducing logistics costs in western China through infrastructure and strengthening opening up to ASEAN. The core issue facing the market today is no longer just the strength of growth, but how much risk compensation asset valuations need when inflation, geopolitical supply, capital costs, and technology governance tighten simultaneously.
