Aden's Space

Daily Briefing | October 9, 2026: Fed Tightening and Middle East Negotiations Affect Global Assets

Today's main theme

Over the past 24 hours, two forces in global asset pricing have clashed again: U.S. inflationary pressures and high long-term interest rates have suppressed tech stock valuations, while signals from Middle East negotiations have temporarily eased the worst-case scenario of oil supply disruptions. Federal Reserve officials emphasized the possibility of continuing interest rate hikes, but retained flexibility in the pace; AI infrastructure companies need to raise huge sums of money and are facing stricter market scrutiny due to rising financing costs. At the same time, the People's Bank of China clarified its stance on the RMB exchange rate, responded to pressure from Europe regarding trade imbalances, and emphasized market supply and demand and expanding domestic demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict serves as a reminder to investors that the costs of protecting energy facilities and livelihood infrastructure will not disappear with a single diplomatic statement. The common theme today is not a single "safe haven" or "easing," but rather a simultaneous reassessment of the price of funds through policy, war, and capital expenditure: bond yields, oil prices, exchange rates, and corporate cash flows together determine the direction of risky assets. The focus should be on whether the negotiations translate into actual shipping improvements, and whether monetary policy and technology investment can remain resilient in a high-cost environment.

2026-10-09

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Daily Briefing | October 5, 2026: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Resurge, Safety Costs Continue to Rise

Today's main theme

Over the past 24 hours, a set of seemingly contradictory but actually interconnected signals have emerged in global markets: cooling US employment has prompted investors to quickly reduce their bets on the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall and giving risky assets a breather. However, energy transportation, European security, AI governance, and the consolidation of small and medium-sized banks in China are all reminding the market that the "security cost" affecting long-term valuations is still rising. The attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the infrastructure conflict between Russia and Ukraine make it difficult for energy and defense premiums to disappear quickly. The AI industry has moved from a model competition to a discussion on the boundaries between public regulation and responsibility. China continues to address weaknesses in its financial system by reducing the number of high-risk small banks. A favorable short-term liquidity environment, coupled with rising medium- to long-term structural risks, constitutes the most noteworthy asset pricing portfolio today.

2026-10-05

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With just 8GB of video memory, you can deploy a 30 tk/s multimodal AI in your laptop.

My Laptop is a very ordinary gaming Laptop: a Ryzen 7 8845H, 16GB of RAM, an RTX 4060 Laptop, and only 8GB of video memory. According to many people's impression, this configuration can only be used to "play around" with local large models.

But now, when I double-click a startup file every day, the browser opens a chat page: I can view images, watch videos, switch the depth of my thinking, and call native tools. My text generation speed is approximately... 31 tokens/sThe entire process involves no internet connection and no API fees. The one running inside is Qwen3.5-9BThe reasoning framework is llama.cpp。

This article is divided into three parts: How I chose the framework and model; An installation tutorial for beginners, written for every command; And the pitfalls I've encountered and the corresponding solutions.

2026-10-05

Daily Briefing | 2026-10-04: Security Anxiety Reshapes the Capital and Policy Agenda

Today's main theme

Over the past 24 hours, the common theme of global policies and markets has shifted further from simple growth and inflation to how the "cost of security" is being repriced. Public questions have once again emerged within the AI industry regarding the imbalance between development speed and security governance; China is reducing weaknesses in its financial system through large-scale consolidation of rural and regional banks; Germany has extended its aid to Ukraine to include joint drone production and energy infrastructure repair; North Korea continues to test medium-range strategic missiles. Meanwhile, Australia and Japan launched their annual finance ministers' dialogue, discussing investment, strategic financing, energy prices, and high bond yields within the same framework. Technological security, financial security, energy security, and military security are simultaneously entering fiscal, capital expenditure, and asset valuation models. Investors are no longer just concerned with "when interest rates will change," but how much long-term cost economies are willing to pay to reduce vulnerability.

2026-10-04

News
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Daily Briefing | 2026-10-03: Energy Shocks Reshape Global Policy Paths

Today's main theme

The common theme over the past 24 hours has been that energy supply shocks and cooling growth are simultaneously squeezing policy space. U.S. job creation plummeted to 29,000 in September, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in October. However, Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.8% due to energy prices, and China suspended refined oil exports to regions outside Hong Kong and Macau in October, further intensifying the risk of global fuel shortages and secondary inflation. On the other hand, AI infrastructure investment is still attracting equity funds, but this is accompanied by net outflows from technology funds and high long-term bond yields, indicating that the market is shifting from "only looking at growth" to examining the return on capital expenditures. The Russian military's escalated attacks on Kyiv's transportation and energy-related facilities have continued to intertwine supply chains, security premiums, and fiscal pressures. The coexistence of growth, inflation, and geopolitical risks means that it is more difficult for central banks and investors to rely on a single data point for judgment.

2026-10-03

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Daily Briefing | October 2, 2026: High Bond Market Pressure and Tightening Global Fuel Supply

Today's main theme

Over the past 24 hours, the common theme in global markets has shifted from "whether central banks will raise interest rates next" to "whether energy shortages and long-term financing costs can be alleviated simultaneously." The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5.34% intraday, the highest since 2002, before falling as Federal Reserve officials hinted at a possible pause in October. However, Chinese refineries suspended exports of refined oil products to regions outside Hong Kong and Macau, and Russia extended its ban on diesel exports, pushing Brent crude oil back above $100 per barrel. AI capital expenditures have also entered a more complex financing phase: Broadcom plans to provide Anthropic with a loan of up to $42 billion, while also serving as its chip design and computing equipment supplier, with industry orders, credit risks, and conflicts of interest intertwined. Geopolitically, the United States has expanded sanctions against Iran's railway and automotive industries, while Russia has warned the West against escalating the Kaliningrad dispute through nuclear deterrence. The start of the fourth quarter indicates that even with a brief pause in policy interest rates, energy, geopolitics, and AI investments are likely to maintain high market discount rates.

2026-10-02

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Gemini 4 Argon: The reasons I like Gemini are all written in Argon this time.

Yesterday, Google officially announced Gemini 4 Argon。

Strictly speaking, this is not a regular release that "everyone can use it now". Argon is being handed over to a group of trusted cybersecurity defenders through the Fairwind Program, and Google is also participating in the US government's pre-release model access process. Paid API users and Google AI Ultra users will be next in line, but Google has not given a specific date.

However, if we only understand it as a cautious grayscale launch, we would underestimate this update. From Google's announced design goals and internal use cases to the third-party testing that has already emerged, Argon is trying to answer a question more important than "Is chatting smarter?":

Can a cutting-edge model work continuously for tens of minutes, hours, or even longer, identifying problems, calling tools, reflecting, modifying, and actually getting things done?

This is exactly what I've always loved about Gemini. Rather than simply pursuing a sense of amazement in conversation, I prefer Google's direction of integrating multimodality, long context, tool calls, and real workflows into a complete system. Argon may not be number one in every test yet, but it is currently the next-generation Gemini that most closely resembles the final form of this approach.

2026-10-01

Daily Briefing | October 1, 2026: Policy Divergence between China, Europe, and the United States and the Reassessment of Energy Interest Rates

Today's main theme

In the past 24 hours, global markets have entered a new phase of "the same energy shock, different policy responses". US PCE inflation in August was lower than expected, significantly reducing the probability of an October rate hike, but economic growth and AI investment are still pushing up long-term yields. Inflation in major European economies has risen across the board due to energy price increases triggered by the Iran war, leading the market to bet that the European Central Bank will need to raise interest rates four more times in the next year. China, on the other hand, has intensified structural easing, lowering mortgage supplementary loan rates, expanding relending for technology and micro and small enterprises, and implementing government interest subsidies for first-time homebuyer commercial loans nationwide for the first time starting October 1. In terms of technology, Google announced its flagship Gemini 4 model, Argon, after a delay of several months, with computing power, cost, and security evaluations becoming the core of the competition. Meanwhile, the US and Iran continued to exchange a seven-day mutual trust plan through Qatar, and the dispute has shifted from the composition of the plan to the order of action. Interest rates, energy, AI capital expenditures, and geopolitical negotiations are collectively determining risk pricing in the fourth quarter.

2026-10-01

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| Market Watch