Daily Briefing | 2026-09-12: Oil market gap widens, interest rates and AI regulations tighten in tandem

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Today's main theme

Over the past 24 hours, the core contradiction in the market has further shifted from "slowing growth" to "coexistence of supply shocks and policy constraints". The IEA has again lowered its global crude oil supply forecast for 2026. The slow recovery of Gulf traffic and the suppression of Russian production by the attack have made high oil prices no longer just a short-term sentiment. Immediately after the European Central Bank raised interest rates, Wall Street further bet on continued tightening in December, indicating that energy inflation is rewriting the path of interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate began discussing requiring cutting-edge AI developers to assume a "duty of care," as regulation moved from disclosure and testing to preventing significant risks. China, on the other hand, has clearly defined its "15th Five-Year Plan" for building a strong financial nation, strengthening the internationalization of the RMB, capital market reform, and risk management. Ahead of the BRICS summit, India and Russia have taken cooperation in payments, investment, and infrastructure to a more practical level. The common theme is that energy, financial, and technology policies are simultaneously increasing the risk premium of global assets, and investors are reassessing the balance between inflation, interest rates, and technology valuations.

Five key news items

1. IEA further cuts supply forecasts: Global oil market gap widens in 2026

The International Energy Agency released its September oil market report on September 11, warning that the delayed resumption of normal flows in the Gulf region, coupled with the continued disruption to production, refining, and transportation caused by the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, means that global crude oil supply is expected to decrease by about 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, equivalent to a drop of about 6%, further deteriorating from the previous estimate of about 4%. The IEA also pointed out that Saudi Arabia's production has fallen to about 6 million barrels per day, a more than 30-year low, and global inventory consumption in August was about 3.1 million barrels per day. In Russia, crude oil production fell to 8.36 million barrels per day in August, 940,000 barrels per day lower than in January. On the demand side, high oil prices are also dragging down demand. The IEA expects demand to decrease by about 2.5 million barrels per day this year, but the faster contraction in supply means that prices will still face upward pressure. For the market, this will push up inflation again through the costs of gasoline, diesel, shipping, chemicals, and aviation, squeeze the central bank's room for interest rate cuts, and further erode the terms of trade and real purchasing power of residents in net energy importing countries. The most crucial variables going forward are the speed of recovery of Gulf shipping, how much more strategic reserves can be released, and whether the attacks on energy infrastructure by Russia and Ukraine will continue to escalate. Source:IEA September Oil Market Report Release Page、Reuters。

2. ECB raises interest rate hike expectations again: High oil prices rewrite "longer, higher" into pricing.

After the European Central Bank raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points this week, Wall Street further raised its expectations for further rate hikes on September 11. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citigroup all believe that another 25 basis points rate hike is still possible in December, with Citi also predicting the possibility of further rate hikes in March 2027. LSEG data shows that the probability of traders pricing in another 25 basis point rate hike in December has risen to about 94%. The key to this change was not the sudden overheating of demand, but rather the fact that Brent crude oil prices have returned to around $100, making the path of inflation decline in the Eurozone significantly more uncertain. The European Central Bank itself also believes that inflation will remain above its 2% target for a longer period of time. For bond and currency markets, this means that long-term European yields may continue to be under pressure, with the euro receiving some interest rate spread support, but corporate finance, real estate, and overvalued growth stocks face higher discount rates. If energy prices remain high, policy tightening could in turn suppress consumption and investment, leaving Europe facing a combination of "weak growth and high inflation". Next, we need to observe the October 29 policy meeting, whether energy prices will stabilize, and whether wage and service inflation will translate the one-off energy shock into more lasting core inflation. Source:Reuters。

3. The US Senate is considering a "duty of care" for cutting-edge AI: regulation is shifting from disclosure to preventing major risks.

Bipartisan negotiators in the U.S. Senate are discussing a new regulatory framework for cutting-edge artificial intelligence developers. The core of the framework would be to require companies to assume a "duty of care" and proactively mitigate known major risks during the design and deployment phases, including the possibility that models could assist in the manufacture of catastrophic weapons such as nuclear and biological weapons. The proposal under discussion could also give the federal government the power to block the release of unsafe models in specific circumstances, while retaining channels for companies to challenge them in federal court. Companies that develop state-of-the-art models, such as Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI, will be the primary targets. Compared to the past emphasis on transparency, red team testing, and voluntary commitments, this approach is closer to product safety and mandatory access systems, meaning that the pace of training, evaluation, and release of cutting-edge models may be redefined. For the AI industry, security testing and compliance costs will rise, but unified federal standards may also reduce the fragmentation of state-level rules and further turn computing power, testing, auditing, and security research into industry entry costs. The focus of subsequent observation will be on whether the two parties can complete the text before the November elections, whether state law will be replaced by federal rules, and how the technical threshold for "significant risk" will be defined. Source:Reuters。

4. China has clarified its "15th Five-Year Plan" strategy for building a strong financial nation: RMB opening and long-term funding will be promoted simultaneously.

The "15th Five-Year Plan" for building a strong financial nation, disclosed on September 11, further clarifies that by 2030, the overall framework of a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics should be basically formed, and the capacity for macro-financial regulation, risk disposal, capital market competitiveness, and high-level opening-up should be improved. Lu Lei, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, said that in the future, the central bank will continue to promote the internationalization of the RMB, expand the coverage of local currency settlement and bilateral currency swaps, and gradually promote a more comprehensive opening up of the domestic financial market. Currently, overseas entities hold more than RMB 11 trillion in domestic RMB financial assets, and the outstanding balance of offshore RMB loans exceeds RMB 1.2 trillion. The People's Bank of China currently has 33 bilateral currency swap agreements, totaling approximately 4.6 trillion yuan. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also disclosed that since the beginning of this year, medium- and long-term funds from social security, annuity, and insurance companies have made net purchases of more than 600 billion yuan in A-shares. Its significance lies in the fact that China is improving the transmission of monetary policy through interest rate liberalization and market-oriented means, enhancing stock market stability with long-term capital, and reducing the dependence of cross-border trade on US dollar liquidity through RMB settlement. The policy also emphasizes risk management for small and medium-sized financial institutions, optimization of mergers and acquisitions and listing systems in the capital market, indicating that "stabilizing growth, stabilizing the market, controlling risks, and expanding opening up" will be promoted in parallel. Going forward, it remains to be seen how to strike a balance between openness and stability in the detailed rules of capital market reform, the expansion of connectivity, and exchange rate flexibility. Source:State Council Information Office/Xinhua News Agency、State Council Information Office。

5. Modi and Putin deepen cooperation ahead of the BRICS summit: payments and infrastructure become new priorities.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in New Delhi on September 11 and emphasized further deepening bilateral economic, trade and strategic cooperation ahead of the BRICS summit. Both sides maintained their goal of increasing bilateral trade from nearly $70 billion to $100 billion by 2030; More notably, Russia positions BRICS as a platform for transformation from geopolitical coordination to a more pragmatic economic cooperation platform, focusing on business investment, technological cooperation, cross-border payments, and joint infrastructure. India continues to maintain a diplomatic balance between the United States, the Gulf states, Russia, Iran, and Israel, while continuing to purchase Russian energy to meet domestic demand. Russia, on the other hand, hopes to use BRICS to reduce trade constraints imposed by sanctions and the US dollar settlement system. For the global market, this does not mean that a single system will emerge as an "alternative to the US dollar" in the short term, but multi-currency settlement, regional payments, and supply chain localization will continue to develop, which will also increase the complexity of companies allocating funds and logistics between different sanctions and compliance systems. Future observation points include whether the BRICS summit will introduce a specific payment mechanism, whether member states' differences over the Middle East conflict can be managed, and how India will balance its relationship between Russian energy procurement and the United States. Source:Reuters。

Market Correlation and Today's Observation

The most important transmission chain today still begins with energy. If the supply gap described by the IEA continues to widen, high oil prices will first enter transportation, industrial raw material, and consumer prices, and then push up nominal interest rates through inflation expectations. The European Central Bank's forced renewed emphasis on austerity is the most direct example of this chain. Rising interest rates will support some high-yield currencies, but at the same time suppress the valuation of duration assets. As a result, global technology stocks, especially highly valued AI companies, face the dual pricing of "strong profit growth and higher discount rates". AI regulation has increased the compliance costs of model training and deployment, leading capital to favor large platforms with existing scale, data, and security infrastructure. China's policy direction is different: when external energy costs and global financial conditions are tight, it will enhance domestic financial resilience through the internationalization of the RMB, long-term capital inflows into the market, and a more market-oriented monetary policy framework. On the commodity side, attention continues to be paid to whether Brent crude can stabilize above $100; On the exchange rate side, attention should be paid to the support of the Euro interest rate differential and the flexibility of the RMB against the backdrop of expanding Risk appetite depends on whether the conflict between the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine over energy infrastructure continues to escalate. If BRICS promotes payments and local currency settlements, it will also make cross-border capital flows and exchange rate management longer-term policy variables. If energy shocks ease, there is room for recovery in bonds and growth stocks; If supply continues to deteriorate, the market may further shift towards cash flow, energy, defense, and short-duration assets.

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