Daily Briefing | 2026-09-13: Red Sea shipping lanes under renewed pressure, Fed rate hike expectations rise

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Today's main theme

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have faced a set of mutually reinforcing risks: US inflation accelerated again in August, and the market has pushed the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week to nearly 90%; At the same time, the Middle East conflict has spilled further from the Strait of Hormuz to the southern tip of the Red Sea, with the Houthi rebels advancing to key positions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising energy and shipping risks once again. On the technology side, another kind of "tightening" has emerged: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has publicly called on cutting-edge AI companies to proactively slow down the pace of capability improvement and promote resident third-party security assessments. On the Chinese side, the leaders of China and India met in New Delhi, putting trade imbalances, supply chains, and predictable market access back at the center of the bilateral agenda. On the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, attacks on ports, industrial and energy infrastructure continue to deepen the economic nature of the war. The common thread is clear: policy, capital, and supply chains are all repricing "higher uncertainty."

Five key news items

1. The US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, significantly increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, up from 0.1% in July. It rose 3.4% year-on-year, the same as in July. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since April, while the year-on-year increase slowed to 2.4% from 2.5%. This round of pressure mainly comes from energy: gasoline prices rose by 3.9% in a single month, contributing more than one-third of the overall CPI monthly increase, while other motor vehicle fuel prices rose even more by 9.6%. Meanwhile, real average hourly wages fell 0.3% year-on-year in August, meaning that price pressures once again outpaced the improvement in residents' purchasing power.

This set of data has significantly changed interest rate pricing. According to Reuters, citing CME FedWatch, after the report was released, the market initially pushed the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week to 91%, but subsequently remained around 87%, up from 72% the previous day. The current target range for federal funds is 3.50%–3.75%. If the Middle East energy shock continues to spread to transportation, aviation, and commodity prices, the Federal Reserve may not only face pressure to raise interest rates in September, but discussions about tightening again in October or December will also intensify. The most important things to watch going forward are the duration of oil prices, core PCE, wage growth, and whether companies will pass on higher energy costs to end consumers.Source: Reuters

2. Houthi rebels are approaching the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the risk of a "dual-channel" relationship between the Red Sea and Hormuz.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen have recently been rapidly advancing southward along the west coast and have advanced near Perim Island in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, giving them a stronger ability to threaten the key shipping lane at the southern tip of the Red Sea. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, serving as a vital throat for European-Asian shipping and energy exports from the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz had previously been severely disrupted by the US-Iran conflict, prompting Saudi Arabia to shift more crude oil to Red Sea ports. If a substantial blockade occurs in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, global energy logistics will face unusual "double-throat" pressure.

Reuters, citing estimates, said the Strait of Hormuz accounted for about one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war, while the Bab el-Mandeb Strait involved about 7% of global oil supply and about 12% of global trade. The United States has stated that it will not directly join Saudi Arabia's military operations against the Houthis, but will provide intelligence support. This means that shipping safety will remain highly dependent on whether regional forces can stabilize the strait in the short term. For the market, the risk is not just oil prices themselves, but the simultaneous increase in tanker insurance premiums, detour times, freight costs, and the cost of imported energy from Europe. It remains to be seen whether the Houthis will truly restrict the passage of merchant ships, whether Saudi Arabia will expand its military operations, whether the United States will change its stance of "not directly intervening," and whether Brent crude can continue to hold above $100.Source: Reuters

3. Anthropic calls for cutting-edge AI to proactively "slow down," as security governance begins to trigger the pace of research and development.

On September 12, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei publicly called on major AI companies to slow down the improvement of cutting-edge model capabilities in exchange for more time to address the risks of abuse and runaway control. He proposed a three-tiered framework: introducing more independent security reviews within cutting-edge labs, coordinating and unifying security standards among major AI companies, and promoting transnational cooperation. Amodei emphasized that this is not about stopping model training, but rather about maintaining a more controlled pace between capability growth and security verification. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk both subsequently agreed with this direction.

The background is that security incidents in AI agent systems are transforming from theoretical risks into real-world governance issues. Anthropic previously disclosed that the Claude model was used for cyber operations, surveillance, and fraud; Amodei also warned that collaborative AI agent swarms could cause significant damage to internet infrastructure within the next 6 to 12 months. For the capital market, this means that for the first time, AI valuation logic may face a direct conflict between "growth rate and security constraints": if third-party review, chip export restrictions, and model capability assessment systems are strengthened, the training pace, computing power procurement, and commercialization cycle of cutting-edge labs may be extended. The next step depends on whether major laboratories have formed formal industry agreements, and whether U.S. regulators have turned voluntary measures into mandatory rules.Source: Reuters

4. *and Modi restart trade issues, with China and India focusing on trade imbalances and market access.

Chinese President*and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi, marking*’s first visit to India in seven years. In addition to emphasizing border peace, both sides placed economic and trade relations at the core of the repair agenda. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs said the two leaders agreed to strengthen commercial and transport ties and address structural trade imbalances, supply chain issues, and "meaningful and predictable market access." Bilateral trade between China and India will reach a record US$155.6 billion by 2025; India will import approximately $132 billion from China in the 2025/26 fiscal year, resulting in a trade deficit of over $100 billion with China.

The economic significance of this meeting lies in the fact that China-India relations are shifting from simply "cooling down safely" to attempting to restore cooperation in investment, industrial equipment, personnel movement, and supply chains. India's manufacturing sector remains highly dependent on Chinese machinery, electronic components, and intermediate goods, but New Delhi has reduced its dependence on China in recent years through investment reviews, application bans, and industrial policies. Beijing, on the other hand, hopes to stabilize South Asian markets and the broader global Southern trade network. If both sides can make concrete relaxations in visas, flights, industrial equipment exports, and investment approvals, it will directly affect the layout of the Asian supply chain. The key variables going forward are whether border negotiations can continue to improve, whether India will relax investment restrictions for Chinese companies, and whether the two sides can reach more specific market access arrangements.Source: Reuters

5. Nearly 500 Russian drones expand their strikes against economic targets, increasing pressure on Ukraine's infrastructure.

Russia launched large-scale airstrikes on multiple parts of Ukraine on September 12. Ukraine stated that since early that morning, the Russian military had deployed nearly 500 drones, covering Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kriverikh, Zhytomyr, and the Black Sea coast. Reuters reported that the attacks killed at least nine people and injured dozens, affecting homes, gas stations, industrial facilities, and ports. Russia also claimed to have struck the Zaporizhzhia Steel plant, the Interpipe Steel facility in Dnipro, and several industrial plants in Kriverikh, and continued to target ships in the ports of Odessa and Chornomorsk.

This indicates that the Russia-Ukraine war is further shifting from frontline consumption to economic infrastructure consumption. Ports, steel, mining, electricity, and logistics networks determine not only Ukraine's export capacity, but also its fiscal revenue and winter economic resilience. At the same time, Ukraine also targeted a large synthetic rubber producer in Tolyatti, Russia, whose products it claimed involved missile fuel additives. For Europe, the escalating infrastructure war means that financial needs for aid to Ukraine, electricity security, and Black Sea trade risks may continue to rise. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether Russia will expand its systematic strikes on ports and power grids, the cost of Black Sea shipping insurance, and whether Europe and the United States can replenish air defense systems and provide financial assistance in a timely manner.Source: Reuters

Market Correlation and Today's Observation

The market implications of today's news can be strung together into a clear chain: Middle East shipping risks will first push up crude oil, diesel, and transportation costs, and then reinforce expectations that "high interest rates will last longer" through US CPI and corporate costs. US inflation in August has made a September rate hike the benchmark scenario again. If Brent crude remains around $100 for an extended period, the bond market may continue to demand higher maturity premiums, and the US dollar will also receive dual support from interest rate spreads and safe-haven assets. Correspondingly, overvalued technology stocks will face renewed discount rate pressure.

However, the risks in the technology sector go beyond just interest rates. Anthropic's push for "proactive throttling" and third-party security assessments signifies that the AI industry has moved from simple computing power, model scale, and financing capabilities to a new stage where it is simultaneously constrained by "capabilities, regulation, and capital expenditure." On the Chinese side, if Sino-Indian relations continue to repair, it will help ease some frictions in Asian supply chains. However, India's trade deficit with China of more than $100 billion means that its policy will not quickly shift to full openness. Commodity markets will need to look at both the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz: further obstruction of either key shipping lane could trigger a second round of energy price surges. Today's focus is therefore on whether oil prices can hold their high levels, whether US Treasury yields will continue to rise, the interest rate differential pressure on Asian currencies such as the US dollar and RMB, and whether the two geopolitical risk lines in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine will continue to spread to the real economy and supply chain.

Cover image:Dr Jorge Reyna / Pexels