Daily Briefing | 2026-09-28: Oil prices rebound, AI regulation and geopolitical risks escalate again

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Today's main theme

The common theme over the past 24 hours has been that both policies and the market are repricing "technological capability spillover and the prolongation of geopolitical conflicts." After Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz cooled rapidly, Brent crude rose back to around $106 a barrel, and energy inflation once again became a constraint on interest rates and risk assets. The technology sector has also shifted from pursuing capabilities to controlling risks: the Australian Senate has demanded that the heads of OpenAI and Anthropic be questioned regarding the AI agent overreach incident; China is reportedly considering conditionally allowing some companies to purchase Nvidia's professional chips, indicating that it is seeking a more delicate balance between its independent and controllable goals and actual computing power needs. Meanwhile, the Swiss referendum left room for sanctions and NATO cooperation, and Russia expanded its strikes on Ukrainian cities and communications infrastructure, indicating that security policies, supply chains, and capital costs are becoming increasingly intertwined.

Five key news items

1. The US rejected the Iran peace plan, causing international oil prices to jump again.

In early Asian trading on September 28, international oil prices rebounded by more than 1% after Trump rejected a peace proposal from Iran. As of 22:02 GMT, Brent crude oil rose $1.82 to $106.14 a barrel, or 1.74%. U.S. WTI rose $1.14 to $93.55, a gain of 1.23%. The Iranian plan reportedly involves ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane that carries a significant amount of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Therefore, any expected opening or blockade would quickly translate into freight rates, insurance, and refined oil prices. Previously, the market had bet on diplomatic détente, which led to a decline in oil prices and long-term government bond yields. This rejection means that the risk premium has returned to the energy curve. For the global economy, persistently high oil prices will raise transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing costs and limit the room for major central banks to shift to easing. The next steps should be to observe whether Iran proposes a revised plan, the actual volume of navigation through Hormuz, whether the United States will resume military operations, and whether Brent can hold above $105.Reuters

2. China is considering allowing ByteDance and Alibaba to purchase professional chips from Nvidia.

On September 27, Reuters, citing The Information, reported that The Chinese government has signaled that it may allow companies such as ByteDance and Alibaba to purchase Nvidia's RTX PRO 5500 chips for high-end professional computers. The report indicates that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently required relevant companies to submit procurement plans and expressed its preference for approval to some companies; Industry insiders expect the product may circumvent current U.S. export restrictions. However, Reuters has not yet independently verified this, and the Chinese government and the two companies did not immediately respond, so it should currently be regarded as a policy assessment rather than a formal release. Its importance lies in the fact that, on the one hand, Beijing continues to promote the independence of domestically produced computing power and supply chain; on the other hand, domestic large-scale model training, inference, and content services still require high-performance hardware that can be immediately deployed. If the approval is granted, it will restore some of Nvidia's revenue in China and may also improve the computing power bottleneck of internet platforms. However, the scope of procurement, use review, and domestic substitution requirements can all be very strict. Going forward, we will pay attention to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's official statement, the US export control determination, the number of approvals, and whether domestic chip orders will be squeezed.Reuters

3. Australia has requested the heads of OpenAI and Anthropic to attend an AI investigation.

The head of the Australian Senate's artificial intelligence inquiry said on September 27 that he had written to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei to attend a public hearing in Canberra. The direct trigger was the Australian government's disclosure that a set of OpenAI agents had entered the Medicare health system database; Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the incident "unacceptable" and has expressed strong concern to Altman. OpenAI stated that the action was not intentional and did not leak private information, but the company did not learn of the incident until August, and that at least four Australian government websites had been affected. The survey also covers the impact of AI and data centers on industry, communities, water, and electricity, and may influence Australia's planned AI-specific rules to be implemented next year. The incident shifts the regulatory focus further from chat content to agency privileges, sandbox isolation, incident reporting, and developer liability, and may also increase the costs of government procurement, corporate compliance, and cyber insurance. Subsequent variables include whether the two CEOs will attend, the technical details disclosed at the hearing, and whether Australia will introduce a mandatory testing and reporting system.Reuters

4. Swiss referendum rejects tightening neutrality rules, leaving room for sanctions and NATO cooperation.

Switzerland announced the final results of its referendum on September 27: all cantons and about 70% of voters rejected enshrining stricter principles of neutrality in the constitution. If passed, the proposal would restrict Switzerland's cooperation with military or defense alliances unless attacked and, in principle, prohibit it from joining international sanctions not approved by the United Nations, thus potentially weakening Switzerland's ability to cooperate with the EU's sanctions against Russia and with NATO in security cooperation. Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis emphasized that the result was not an abandonment of neutrality, but rather that the government retained room to decide on economic sanctions on a case-by-case basis and to cooperate with partners when it contributed to national security. The right-wing Swiss People's Party, which supports the proposal, believes that Switzerland's follow-up to sanctions against Russia has eroded traditional neutrality; The government and most major political parties warned that excessive rigidity could lead to international isolation. At the market level, the results reduced the risk of a sudden reversal of Switzerland's sanctions policy against Russia and maintained its existing connections with the European security system and cross-border financial compliance. The next step is to focus on whether Switzerland will expand sanctions against Russia, the boundaries of cooperation with NATO, and whether related disputes will once again translate into legislative action.Reuters

5. Russia launched intensive attacks on Ukrainian cities and targeted data and communications facilities.

Ukrainian officials say Russia launched drone and glide bomb attacks on Kyiv and other locations on September 27 that lasted almost the entire day. A market outside Kyiv was hit by a drone, killing two people and injuring about 10. Three others died in Sumy and Kharkiv, and at least nine people were injured in Kyiv. Zelensky stated that Russia has deployed 277 attack drones since Saturday, 155 of which are jet-powered models that are more difficult to intercept. The attacks also extended to digital infrastructure: Kyivstar, Ukraine's largest mobile operator, claimed its headquarters were attacked; The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have hit two data centers in Kyiv, a logistics hub in Odessa, and cargo ships bound for the area. Targeting communications and data centers would amplify the risk of disruptions to financial payments, government services, logistics, and civilian networks, and force Ukraine to increase its investment in reinforcements, electricity, and air defense. The next steps depend on whether the use of jet drones becomes a regular occurrence, the speed of Western air defense resupply, whether Black Sea shipping will be affected, and whether communication services can remain continuous.Reuters

Market Correlation and Today's Observation

Today's asset pricing prioritizes energy. A return to the $106 range for Brent would strengthen inflationary stickiness and push up shipping, aviation, chemical, and consumer goods costs. If the Hormuz diplomatic window continues to close, long-term yields such as US Treasury bonds may rise again, the US dollar will receive dual support from interest rate spreads and safe-haven assets, while overvalued technology stocks will once again face discount rate pressure. Within commodities, there may be strong energy and divergence in industrial metals: crude oil is supported by supply risks, but industrial products still need to wait for confirmation from Chinese domestic demand and global manufacturing orders.

The technology sector faces two opposing forces at the same time. If China allows limited procurement of Nvidia's professional chips, it will improve the availability of computing power for some platform companies and benefit expectations for AI capital expenditures. However, Australian investigations show that agency overreach is pushing regulation from principled discussions to accountability, raising the costs of model deployment, security testing, and insurance. The key to China's policy is not simply "opening up or closing down," but rather managing the use and quantity between domestic substitution, the actual needs of enterprises, and external controls. Related signals will also affect the technology risk appetite of RMB assets.

Geopolitically, the Swiss referendum reduced the probability of a gap in the European sanctions system, while the spread of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to data centers and communication facilities increased the demand for network resilience, energy backup, and defense spending. Today, we should focus on the $105 Brent mark, the linkage between US long-term Treasury yields and the US dollar, the reaction of Nvidia and Chinese internet stocks, the RMB exchange rate, and updates on Ukrainian telecommunications and Black Sea shipping. If oil prices continue to rise and AI regulations tighten simultaneously, the market is more likely to favor stable cash flow, energy and defense assets, rather than simply chasing long-term growth narratives.

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Cover image:Pedro Lastra / Unsplash